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Pancreatic cancer incorporates ICD-10 cancer code C25 (Malignant neoplasm of pancreas).
Pancreatic cancer was the 10th most commonly diagnosed cancer in Australia in 2013. It is estimated that it will remain the 10th most commonly diagnosed cancer in 2017.
In 2013, there were 2,865 new cases of pancreatic cancer diagnosed in Australia (1,490 males and 1,374 females). In 2017, it is estimated that 3,271 new cases of pancreatic cancer will be diagnosed in Australia (1,722 males and 1,548 females).
In 2013, the age-standardised incidence rate was 11 cases per 100,000 persons (12 for males and 9.5 for females). In 2017, it is estimated that the age-standardised incidence rate will be 11 cases per 100,000 persons (13 for males and 9.7 for females). From age group 25–29, the incidence rate of pancreatic cancer is expected to generally increase with age (Figure 1).
In 2017, it is estimated that the risk of an individual being diagnosed with pancreatic cancer by their 85th birthday will be 1 in 65 (1 in 57 males and 1 in 73 females).
The number of new cases of pancreatic cancer diagnosed increased from 1,206 (700 males and 506 females) in 1982 to 2,865 in 2013. Over the same period, the age-standardised incidence rate increased from 10 cases per 100,000 persons (13 for males and 7.5 for females) in 1982 to 11 cases per 100,000 persons in 2013 (Figure 2).
In 2014, pancreatic cancer was the 5th leading cause of cancer death in Australia. It is estimated that it will remain the 5th most common cause of death from cancer in 2017 (Table 1).
In 2014, there were 2,547 deaths from pancreatic cancer in Australia (1,335 males and 1,223 females). In 2017, it is estimated that this will increase to 2,915 deaths (1,515 males and 1,400 females).
In 2014, the age-standardised mortality rate was 9.3 deaths per 100,000 persons (10 for males and 8.3 for females). In 2017, it is estimated that the age-standardised mortality rate will be 9.8 deaths per 100,000 persons (11 for males and 8.7 for females). From age group 25–29, the mortality rate of pancreatic cancer is expected to generally increase with age (Figure 1).
In 2017, it is estimated that the risk of an individual dying from pancreatic cancer by their 85th birthday will be 1 in 71 (1 in 64 males and 1 in 80 females).
The number of deaths from pancreatic cancer increased from 797 (466 males and 331 females) in 1968 to 2,547 in 2014. Over the same period, the age-standardised mortality rate remained relatively similar at 9.6 per 100,000 persons (13 for males and 7.2 for females) in 1968 to 9.3 per 100,000 persons in 2014 (Figure 2).
Source: AIHW .
Source: AIHW .
In 2009–2013, individuals diagnosed with pancreatic cancer had a 7.7% chance (7.7% for males and 7.6% for females) of surviving for 5 years compared to their counterparts in the general Australian population.
Between 1984–1988 and 2009–2013, 5-year relative survival from pancreatic cancer improved from 3.4% to 7.7%.
The survivorship population is measured using prevalence data. Prevalence refers to the number of people alive who have previously been diagnosed with pancreatic cancer.
The prevalence for 1, 5 and 31 years given below are the number of people living with pancreatic cancer at the end of 2012 who had been diagnosed in the preceding 1, 5 and 31 years respectively.
At the end of 2012, there were 1,574 people living who had been diagnosed with pancreatic cancer that year, 2,845 people who had been diagnosed with pancreatic cancer in the previous 5 years (from 2008 to 2012) and 3,916 people who had been diagnosed with pancreatic cancer in the previous 31 years (from 1982 to 2012).
More information on pancreatic cancer from Cancer Australia
Cancer is classified by the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems Version 10 (ICD–10). This is a statistical classification, published by the World Health Organization, in which each morbid condition is assigned a unique code according to established criteria.
Future estimations for incidence and mortality are a mathematical extrapolation of past trends. They assume that the most recent trends will continue into the future, and are intended to illustrate future changes that might reasonably be expected to occur if the stated assumptions continue to apply over the estimated period. Actual future cancer incidence and mortality rates may vary from these estimations. For instance, new screening programs may increase the detection of new cancer cases; new vaccination programs may decrease the risk of developing cancer; and improvements in treatment options may decrease mortality rates.
Cancer incidence indicates the number of new cancers diagnosed during a specified time period (usually one year).
The 2013 national incidence counts include estimates for NSW because the actual data were not available. Note that actual data for the Australian Capital Territory do not include cases identified from death certificates.
The 2017 estimates are based on 2004–13 incidence data. Due to rounding of these estimates, male and female incidence may not sum to person incidence.
Cancer mortality refers to the number of deaths occurring during a specified time period (usually one year) for which the underlying cause of death is cancer.
The 2017 estimates are based on mortality data up to 2013. Joinpoint analysis was used on the longest time series of age–standardised rates available to determine the starting year of the most recent trend.
Prevalence of cancer refers to the number of people alive with a prior diagnosis of cancer at a given time. It is distinct from incidence, which is the number of new cancers diagnosed within a given period of time. The longest period for which it is possible to calculate prevalence using the available national data (from 1982 to 2012) is currently 31 years so this is used to provide an estimate of the ‘total’ prevalence of cancer as at the end of 2013, noting that people diagnosed with cancer before 1982 aren’t included.
Incidence and mortality rates expressed per 100,000 population are age–standardised to the Australian population as at 30 June 2001.